Has Thai politics really reached a dead end? Read more...

Has Thai politics really reached a dead end? The question hangs in the air as no one seems able to suggest an acceptable way that would lead this divided country out of the political crisis which has been growing more and more tense by the day. The government of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is standing its ground, maintaining its "democratically elected" status and not giving in to the "mob". Meanwhile, the People's Alliance for Democracy, with its hundreds of thousand supporters, remains as intent in its pursuit of a new format of democracy to fight what it views as nothing but money politics. The most popular solution _ supported mainly by educational institutes and civil society organisations _ is for PM Samak to resign or dissolve the House of Representatives. This idea has been flatly rejected by Mr Samak. The premier is adamant that he has no choice but to stay on and "defend democracy under attack". There is simply no way that he will bow to the demands of the PAD, which he views as a mob with a minority voice. During the past more than 100 days of protest, the PAD crowd has shown no sign of decreasing, despite the clashes and casualties. The PM's counter-attack via declaration of a state of emergency in the hopes of halting the flow of people joining the PAD protest, has achieved nothing of the sort. His latest move _ proposing that a referendum be held to judge whether people agree with the PAD protest or not _ runs the risk of breaching Section 165 of the Constitution, which bars a poll on the actions of an individual or group of individuals. The PM has also declared he will go on a roadshow and talk to 140 radio stations within one month to spread the message of the referendum to the general public. The move, however, has been criticised as capable of spreading the conflict from urban Bangkok to the whole country. Critics also argue that the proposal would be a waste of the roughly 1.8 billion baht budget because the same old ghost of vote buying would resurface and the PAD would not accept the referendum's result anyway. Even the Election Commission, which would be directly responsible for the referendum bill, is not endorsing the idea. The EC is worried that if the bill is enacted for the purpose of asking the public to choose between the government and the PAD, it would be like igniting a conflagration throughout the whole land. During parliament's joint session over the past weekend, opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat party proposed that the prime minister dissolve the House to avoid further clashes and loss of life. Mr Abhisit said he proposed this suggestion even though he knew his party would be at a disadvantage at the polls. He reasoned that with the popularity of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra remaining high among the majority of voters, PM Samak's party would likely be assured of an election victory and Mr Samak could return to parliament with renewed legitimacy. In the process, he would have defused the crisis at hand as well. A source in People Power party noted, however, that while Mr Abhisit's proposal may appear sincere, it could still be a trap. The PPP believes the Democrats must realise that the PAD would simply come back again if the PPP returned with a parliamentary majority after yet another election. And that the PAD would not stop until it uprooted the entire Thaksin system. In the PPP's analysis, since no good would come out of another election as the PAD would still be around no matter what, so why relinquish power now? Another factor in the PPP's calculations is the possibility of its party being dissolved and its 36 executives banned for electoral fraud which occurred in the Dec 23 election last year. Even if PM Samak was eventually compelled to take the House dissolution option, it would not bode well if the party were to be dissolved the middle of campaigning. The People Power party has prepared for such a possibility by setting up the Puer Thai party as an alternative banner for PPP MPs. If that happens, however, the PPP knows it would be at a disadvantage and the chances of being the core of a new coalition would not be easy, as it would not be able to find enough executives who were in the same league as those governing the Democrats. So, it is a long game now for both PM Samak and the PAD, with sporadic clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters. The confrontation is likely to be more intense, with clashes more violent and more blood likely to be drawn. From now on, the protracted stalemate will become more vitriolic as both sides are convinced of their different ideologies and eventual triumph.